Horse and TaxesTier 1
at Apex DTR Store champs
decks
2
(4.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
19
11-6-2
overall winrate
63.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
72.5%
avg ELO +8.7 per match
expected value
55.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
62.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1287
· median 1287
· range 1113–1460
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1047
Q1 1263
Q3 1393
1633
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 54.5% | 8 | 4-3-1 | 56.2% | 54.2% | 63.7% | +6.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 18.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 72.8% | +21.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 63.2% | +9.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.1% | -6.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Water Genbu | 6.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.0% | +6.4 |
| Fire Suited | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.1% | +24.1 |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.5 |
